The Russians showed their organizational skills in a very disciplined first leg last week, and made the Reds pay for some defensive lapses by notching a couple of goals, one of which would be a goal of the season contender as Hulk blasted in a scorcher from distance.
At Anfield on Thursday they will no doubt play on the counter attack, looking to expose Liverpool's lack of pace in central defense, with Hulk waiting to pounce on anything that comes his way. The Reds will need Carragher and Agger to be at their dominating best for the return clash, and for Jose Enrique and Glen Johnson to exercise caution when going forwards so as to not forget their duties at the back to help resist the Zenit counter attack.
There is no doubt that Pepe Reina will start, and the back four practically names itself, with Enrique, Agger, Carragher and Johnson likely the first names on Rodgers' list. The solid performance of this back five against Swansea City, together with the added bonus of a clean sheet, should give them some confidence going into this vital tie against their dangerous Russian counterparts.
The midfield-attack area is less obvious, however, as Rodgers finds himself very short on attacking options. Both Coutinho and Sturridge - excellent against Swansea - are ineligible for the Reds' European campaign, and with Fabio Borini the unfortunate victim of a nasty-looking shoulder injury, Liverpool will once again look to Luis Suarez to lead the line and inspire the side to get the goals they need to progress.
BR will likely play a 4-4-1-1 option with either Shelvey or Downing playing behind Suarez in attack, supported by a midfield of Gerrard, Lucas, Sterling and the other one of the Shelvey/Downing choice, giving them a lineup like the following:
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| LFC 4-4-1-1 formation |
The other option for Rodgers, given the need to score at least 2 goals just to force extra time, would be to go with a really attacking formation, along the lines of 4-3-3 or 4-3-2-1. This would see a midfield three of Gerrard, Lucas and Henderson supporting an attacking trio of Suarez, Downing and Sterling (or possibly Shelvey). If he goes with that, it'll look something like this:
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| LFC 4-3-2-1 formation |
I would personally like to see LFC attack as much as possible, knowing we need to go at Zenit right from the first whistle. To do this, we cannot really on a packed midfield with only Suarez up front; he needs someone to support him, and that's why a 4-3-3 or 4-3-2-1 formation would be ideal.
The Zenit defense looked prone to error in the first leg, so some pace in the side would be the best way to exploit this. Using Suarez and Sterling to this effect would be ideal, coupled with the passing range of both Gerrard and Downing should give the Reds a way to get back into the tie.
Enrique and Johnson will be encouraged to get forwards as often as possible, but it would be a mistake to do this too often as Carragher and Agger don't have the pace at the back to deal with Hulk, and could be easily exposed on the counter attack. Lucas will need to continue his progress on Thursday by marshalling the area between midfield and defense, winning the ball back and giving it to Gerrard (or Henderson) so they can put the Reds on the attack.
It is a must win game, and I fully expect the starting eleven to give their all for the team. If LFC can score before half time the tie will be winnable in the second half, as long as they manage to banish the nerves and defensive errors that have cost them wins in 4 out of the last 5 matches (0-2 Zenit, 0-2 West Brom, 2-2 Manchester City, 2-2 Arsenal).
Liverpool can do this - they can win and write their name in the next round, but they need to attack from the start. If it is still goalless after 60 minutes, they should throw caution to the wind and switch to 4-3-3 (if not already doing so), or even 3-4-3 by pushing Jose Enrique up into midfield.
#YNWA
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